Muthanna Journal of Engineering and Technology
Volume (14), Issue (4), Year (2026), Pages (156-164)
DOI:10.52113/3/eng/mjet/2026-14-04-/156-164
Research Article By:
Ali Saeed Shanshool
Corresponding author E-mail: As1615983@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
Large religious gatherings load regional infrastructure heavily for a short time. The load is predictable, yet how the systems that carry it actually behave is still poorly documented. This study uses the complete daily operating record of the Karbala fuel distribution branch over twenty-one consecutive days, 16 July to 5 August 2026, spanning the build-up, the Arbaeen day itself on 4 August and the first day of the return. The records cover 53 supply nodes and four petroleum products, and give for every node and day the closing stock, the volume sold, the quantity received and the orders placed. Surge factor, order fill rate, days of supply and demand amplification indicators show that system-wide days-of-supply fell to a low of 0.78 day at the peak of the load – with product-level cover as low as 0.60 day for gas oil – before recovering to 1.47 days on the Arbaeen day: the replenishment effort culminated after the demand it was meant to serve. Fitting the build-up trend and projecting it to the Arbaeen day, the usual procedure when the peak is not observed, overstates the measured requirement by 70.4% (95% prediction interval 4.45–5.48 million litres against 2.92 million actually recorded).
Keywords: Bullwhip effect; Days of supply; Fuel supply chain; Mass gathering logistics; Order fill rate